Victoria Kluk
Time is running out to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb. Tehran’s determination to acquire nuclear know-how is one of the greatest threats to international security and regional Middle Eastern stability.
The inability of Western powers and United Nations Security Council members to wield sufficient carrots and sticks means the radical regime’s nuclear ambitions have continued unabated. Every effort has been invested by the Islamic Republic in developing the nuclear programme, despite the expiration, on the 24th of May 2007, of the ultimatum set by UN Security Council Resolution 1747.
There is now an urgent need for serious action against the nuclear and regional hegemonic designs of Iran’s ruling elite. At worst case scenario, the regime’s grasp on nuclear technology is nearing the ‘point of no return’. There is now an absolute necessity to change Tehran’s calculus so that their nuclear aspirations become too risky. The international community needs to demonstrate real resolve to draw back Iran’s confrontational and fanatical leaders.
In the eyes of hardline, messianic Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the allpowerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and radical Ayatollahs, Iran’s real chance of achieving supremacy in the Middle East, exporting the Islamic Revolution (of 1979) and accomplishing the oft stated goal of wiping Israel off the face of the map is through its nuclear programme.
It is time to isolate Iran economically and make diplomacy work to avert the catastrophic effects of a nuclear armed revolutionary Islamic Republic.
Until recently there has been slow but steady progress on Iran’s nuclear programme (it began 19 years ago), creating facts that will be hard to reverse. Iran has expanded its nuclear programme in spite of sanctions and alleged suspensions of activity.
On 30th August 2007, nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran is simultaneously operating 2,000 centrifuges (albeit allegedly under capacity), capable of enriching uranium at its vast underground facility at Natanz, an increase of several hundred machines from only a few months ago. The UN has focused on halting enrichment because the process of enriching uranium can produce either fuel for nuclear reactors and electricity, or the material for a warhead.
Extreme statements, tantamount to inciting genocide, by Iran’s political and religious leaders, regional hegemonic goals of the regime and the lack of need for nuclear power (the country is a producer of oil) doesn’t bode well for a nuclear programme that is allegedly for peaceful means. Why else would there be a need for Iranian enriched uranium than to create a nuclear bomb?
All this coupled with facts that Tehran’s defence establishment is touting its latest Shahab missile, capable of reaching Western Europe armed with a nuclear warhead, and key officials repeatedly threaten us in Britain, the US and the entire West.
Hassan Abbasi, who heads the Iranian Center for Doctrinal Strategic Studies, boasted in November 2005 that Iran could eradicate Europe: "We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo Saxon civilization. We must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front by means of our suicide operations or by means of missiles."
In April 2006, Iran claims that it can mobilize more than 40,000 suicide bombers to strike Western targets In a tape recording heard by The Sunday Times, Abbasi instructed the would-be martyrs to "pay close attention to wily England.”
Mohammad Ali Samadi of the Iran-based Martyrs of the International Islamic Movement states said in May 2006: "We have brothers who are ready to sacrifice their lives for the triumph of Islam in Great Britain, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and also the United States.”
In November 2006 Iran tested missiles with a range of 1,250 miles. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Chief Yahya Safavi says, in reference to Britain, France, and the United States: "We [Iran] want to show our deterrent and defensive power to transregional enemies, and we hope they will understand the message."
According to the Independent, in June 2006, the Commons' Intelligence and Security Committee report indicated that "there is a possibility of an increased threat to UK interests from Iranian statesponsored terrorism should the diplomatic situation deteriorate."
The following dangers are posed by Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.
First, the Iranian regime might actually use a bomb if and when Tehran acquires the capacity.
Second, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism in Lebanon (Hizbullah), Palestinian Territories (Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad), Iraq (Mahdi Army and Badr Brigade) and Afghanistan (support for the Taleban). There is no guarantee Tehran will not proliferate to non-sovereign terrorist proxies or even rogue states.
Third, Iran already acts as a destabilising influence in the Middle East through support for terrorist organisations,. Even without actual proliferation, granting a nuclear umbrella to the above named terrorist groups will aggravate regional instability and create more tension in Israel, Lebanon and Iraq.
Fourth, an Iranian bomb will exacerbate a Middle East nuclear arms race. Already, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced Egypt will not ‘stand aside’ if the nuclear arms race in the region escalates and it would be forced to try and ‘equip’ itself with similar weapons to defend itself.
Also, Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates – said in December 2006 that they would study embarking on a joint nuclear research programme. This raises further concern at a regional arms race and is indicative of the tenuous political and security situation in the Gulf.
Incremental, largely symbolic, sanctions - detailed in successive UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 - have not worked. To date, futile attempts at diplomacy in the UN have produced few results, much talk and little action (even by Security Council Members themselves).
Independent attempts including divestment of Iran by US pension funds and the designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation by the American administration have been somewhat more effective in squeezing where it matters – Tehran’s economy.
According to Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy:
“Contrary to their images as ideological fanatics, Iran’s leaders devote much of their efforts to lining their own pockets – fighting more often and viciously to protect their incomes than their ideas.”
Despite campaigning against corruption of his predecessors, evidence supports that Ahmadinejad and his IRGC cronies are as susceptible to corruption and patronage as those alleged moderates including Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who presided before him.
Current UN sanctions include a ban on arms imports and exports and freeze assets of designated individuals associated with the nuclear programme – including high ranking members of the IRGC like Commander Yayha Safavi.
Sanctions need to go much further. Every incremental measure allows the regime to adjust to each rung on the sanctions ladder. For instance, in late June 2007 the Iranian Government launched a comprehensive gasoline rationing strategy in anticipation of additional UN sanctions, such as a ban on oil imports and exports.
The IRGC is pivotal to the regime especially since Ahmadinejad’s assumption of power. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has lauded the IRGC’s promotion as the backbone of the regime propelling its leadership in positions of economic and political power. The Revolutionary Guards are the chief obstacle to the country’s democratisation and economic privatisation – it is therefore essential to choke the IRGC’s financial resources as a means of financial sanctions against the regime.
Reducing the power of the IRGC and squeezing the elites economically may be one of the few ways of preventing military action at this stage and rolling back time on the nuclear programme. Diplomacy should be exhausted but at present military sticks are touted as diplomatic carrots fall flat.
We in Britain must join US moves to designate the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, and must press our European counterparts to do the same. Not only for prevention of Iran’s nuclear ambitions but to prevent further proliferation of Iranian sponsored terrorism.
The IRGC capture of our 15 British naval personnel and use of Iranian weapons against British troops in Iraq should have sent more warning signs of their true potential as aggressors of the region.
Furthermore, whilst Iran’s major trading partner is the European Union, the impact of European Banks pulling out of business with Tehran will bite as the costs of doing business increase. Unilateral moves are limited therefore a serious multinational commitment to financial sanctions should be top of the international agenda.
President Ahmadinejad claims to be unimpressed by the threat of additional sanctions and his speeches of the past few months stress that the regime has no intention of complying with the Security Council’s demands to freeze uranium enrichment. He has also downplayed the effects on the nuclear programme.
In early May Ahmadinejad said to the West, “You can pass more and more sanctions resolutions until you get tired of it… (the West) is done for. Like a battery about to run out, they muster the remainder of their power but God willing, nothing will happen. We’ve passed that. Wait one month, two months, three months, and with the grace of God, we will pass that…”
It is time to isolate Iran economically and make diplomacy work to avert the catastrophic effects of a nuclear armed revolutionary Islamic Republic.
In parallel to commitments to continue the nuclear programme apace, in response to any military action, Iranian security services have threatened to ignite the Middle East by attacking American allies in the Gulf, allowing terrorist from Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations free passage across its borders – giving them access to the rest of the Middle East, and raise the cost of oil to $250 a barrel thus crippling the economies of the US and Europe.
It is time to isolate Iran economically and make diplomacy work to avert the catastrophic effects of a nuclear armed revolutionary Islamic Republic. United and effective action will create the foundations for Middle East peace, combat terrorism and strength international security.